Where can protests evolve in China, where thousands of people take to the streets? When did the first spark of demonstrations appear? What are the options for China? Will China focus on security rather than development? How strong is Xi? prof. Dr. Sezen wrote the series.
Protests in China: how strong is Xi?
Protests in China: how strong is Xi?
Towards the end of November, Covid-19 cases started to be detected again in China. And in China, which has adopted the zero Covid policy, very strict measures have been taken. However, this time it was a different development than the previous measures and thousands of people took to the streets to protest the measures taken. The target of the protests is Chinese President Xi Jinping (Chi Jinping), the architect of the zero Covid policy. "Xi resign!" in various cities slogans are shouted.
In fact, China has been on the agenda for weeks with its 20th National Congress held in mid-October. However, the demonstration with banners directly targeting Xi in Beijing before the congress was perhaps the sign of the social reactions experienced these days.one
At the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP), Xi Jinping was, as expected, elected as the third-term Party General Secretary and formed a party cadre that seemed loyal to him. In the evaluations of the congress in the foreign and domestic press, two themes were intensely discussed. One of them was that Xi consolidated his absolute power in the context of China by forming a loyal cadre where there was no opposition wing. The second was that, based on the content of Xi's report on behalf of the 19th Congress, the country would follow a security-oriented policy in the coming years, putting development on the back burner. In fact, after the congress, based on the "get ready for war" instruction to the army, comments were made that China was preparing itself for a war.
Yes; It is a fact that there are developments that support the views that envision Xi as an omnipotent leader, and that the rules introduced under Deng Xiaoping, who made economic reforms in the 1980s, were eroded and exceeded. The removal of the two-term limitation for the presidency, the election of a leader for the first time as the party secretary for the third term, the fact that the composition of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau is no longer an indicator of prospective leader candidates, and the tradition of raising leaders has failed, and the experience criterion is ignored in the selection of cadres can be counted among these evidences.
In fact, other justifications can be added, such as bypassing some of the steps followed in the law-making process for the urgent enactment of a security-related bill, and ensuring that it is enacted quickly by Xi's instruction.
However, these facts are to characterize Xi as a new Mao based on his personal characteristics; Based on the report he presented at the congress, is it enough to conclude that China has entered a period focused on security rather than development? How can Xi cope with the societal backlash he is facing today? Answering these questions by relating them to both the past, the history of the country, and the current conditions of the country and the global system will provide a more convenient framework for understanding and explaining China.
Two Traumas
China experienced two traumas in the 19th and 20th centuries.
In the 19th century, China, which saw itself as the center country with the world's largest, self-sufficient economy and "unique civilization", looked down on other countries with excessive self-confidence, and did not make sense of England's demands for making more space for itself in trade, The encounter with the British navy on its shores marks the beginning of a new era that has been imprinted in their memory as the Century of Humiliation.
The following 100 years are a period of the Opium Wars, China's becoming a semi-colonial country as a result of the Japanese occupation, and wars (national war against foreign powers and intermittent civil war between communist-nationalist forces).
The founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 symbolizes the rise of the fallen Chinese people 100 years later. The goal of the new China is to recover and regain its former power by working hard, analyzing those who defeated it with the elements that enabled them to gain this power, especially the scientific-technological capacity.
Thus, in the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Party (2021), moderately prosperous; In the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PRC (2049), the goal of creating a developed and modern country in every sense is neither the invention of the previous leaders who named these goals, nor of Xi, who maintains this with new rhetoric…
Its roots go back to Mao's 1950s, 50-70 crossing the United States years later, Deng's resurgence in the 1970s, is Zhou Enlai's3 The “four modernization” of the 1960sIt is the continuation of a policy that can be taken up to its goals and handed down from generation to generation, which is shaped by updating and advancing according to the conditions of the period.
Why was the collapse of the Soviet Union traumatic for China?
The collapse and dissolution of the Soviet Union is the second trauma for China.
Fear of the same fate led the CCP to two main concerns and priorities, both to preserve party power and to preserve the unity and territorial integrity of a multinational state structure like the Soviet Union.
The preservation of the CCP's power was perceived as a guarantee of the country's unity and territorial integrity. Although liberalization steps were taken at the end of 1978, further deepening of these steps began in the early 1990s after Deng's famous Southern Tour.It is no coincidence that it is launched after 5 . In the following period, the Party's abandoning the class struggle and basing its legitimacy on development and turning to political reforms is not only the product of Deng's ever-present liberal line, but also a result of this concern.
China sees itself on the threshold of a new stage that will reach its final goal in this journey that has been going on in various stages for the last forty years. This is the context of Xi's discourse on “Chinese Socialism for a New Era”.
What are the challenges facing China?
In this new era, China faces two main challenges and tasks.
The first difficulty; internally, to cope with the growing economic-social problems, the accelerating social reactions and to maintain the legitimacy of the Party. Falling into the middle-income trap is a leader's worst nightmare.
The second difficulty; It is to deal with the current global powers that see China's progress towards changing its position in the global division of labor and hierarchy as a threat to their power and try to hinder China.
The mutual interest-role alliance established in the 1980s between China and Western capitalism is now over. Western capitalism is in favor of continuing their subcontracting within China's old hierarchy. Focusing on the center, China has no intention of remaining a peripheral or semi-peripheral country.
But he is aware that he is not at this stage yet. "scientific development" in HU's words, "high-quality development" and "dual circulation" in Xi's discourse,These are the policies aiming at a balanced growth between domestic consumption and export, prioritizing quality over quantity, thus aiming at qualitative transformation in workforce, production and technology.
Security rather than development?
The goal of creating a world-class military is part of the 2049 goals. A strong and effective army is seen as an integral part of a developed China in every sense, as well as a guarantee that the situation that fell in the 19th century will not be repeated again.
If there is one thing that China does not want at this critical stage, it is war. War not only thwarts the country's future ambitions, it also means further stumbling of the economy, which is already facing a host of problems. Therefore, China's current agenda is focused on domestic problems and continuing its progress.
Based on the frequency of using the terms "security" and "development" in Xi's report on behalf of the 19th Party Congress, comments such as China's entry into a security-oriented period rather than development and preparing for war are quick and out of touch with the past. In the report, security is used not only in the military context, but in a broad context in a number of fields (such as food-energy security).
In the report, which consists of 15 chapters and 63 pages, there are only two pages devoted to the section titled “The People's Liberation Army Reaching the Goal of the Century and the Continuation of Modernization in the Army”, which is dedicated to national defense and where the concept of security is mentioned twice. Moreover, the goals mentioned here are not new either; It consists of the repetition of what is in the previous official discourses and texts.
The report states that “innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development; a new development model focused on the national economy; high-quality, more effective, equitable, sustainable and secure economic development, as well as a series of measures for socio-economic and cultural development.7
Two developments warning China
However, in the context of defense, it is worth noting the role of at least two developments stimulating China.
The first is that the USA, in addition to a series of economic-ideological measures in order to surround China, which threatens its global leadership, shifts its military power to the Asia Pacific, and tends to use NATO as an alliance against China, while appearing against Russia.
The second is attempts to force China to use military force as a continuation of this containment and stumbling block. In this context, initiatives such as the support given to the events in Hong-Kong and to mobilize the minorities, and to bring the war discourse to the agenda by forcing China to a military intervention in Taiwan can be mentioned in this context.
The USA seeks to consolidate its power by creating a Russia-Ukraine type conflict between China and Taiwan, condemning China and Russia as its “ally” through the free world-totalitarian world dichotomy. Long-term non-forced unification of Taiwan with the mainland has been on China's agenda since 1949 and is part of its policy of reaching the old borders with Hong-Kong and Macau. Military intervention is only the way to go under two conditions, when Taiwan declares its independence or is intervened by a foreign power.
How strong is Xi?
Addressing the results of the 20th Congress with a purely leader-oriented approach and Xi's policies not only limited to his own period, but also within the historical continuity of the CCP and together with the party policies, is both the source of the enthusiasm to increase the power attributed to Xi. it also shows us that it is not limited to Xi.
Today, as the US increasingly toughens its measures to maintain its global leadership, China is faced with two-sided pressure. On the one hand, it has to continue its progress, whose internal and external conditions are getting more and more difficult, and on the other hand, it has to struggle with multidimensional external attempts to prevent its progress. How this process is managed will determine the true display of the strength of Xi and his new staff.
As a matter of fact, it is eagerly awaited how the new administration will manage the social demonstrations that have been going on for a few days in the country. Contrary to superficial judgments, China has historically been a society familiar with social upheaval. Aside from the dynasties that changed with the peasant uprisings in the imperial period; In 1911, the dynastic regime ended in a series of uprisings in various parts of the country, eventually joining the imperial army.
While today's protests appear, in essence, to be an expression of the anxiety created by the zero Covid measures of the past three years, the slogans against Xi and the CCP are a sign of another context in these demonstrations. After the congress, the expectations for the relaxation of the measures were high.Despite partial regulations.
When did the first spark appear?
China's persistent zero-COVID measures are due to fears of mass death toll from full liberalization due to low vaccination and insufficient healthcare capacity. Despite the economic slowdown, this policy was maintained. Considering that the unproductive sick and elderly population was sacrificed in some Western countries during the epidemic, China's measures are actually a policy that prioritizes human life.
However, as in Xinjiang, this policy, which has now led to deaths, seems to be no longer sustainable and bearable, especially in large cities where the middle class is concentrated. In fact, the first spark of the reactions emerged with the protest with banners in Beijing before the congress.
It is too early to make predictions about the evolution of the shows. In the current situation, there is an audience dominated by the younger generation of university students. It is reminiscent of the protest actions against the epidemic measures observed in European countries during the peak of the epidemic.
If the demonstrations take on a mass appearance with class participation, the process is moved to an advanced stage; but the potential to evolve in this direction seems weak for now.
Political demands aside, it is an insurmountable paradox of both maintaining strict Covid measures and peacefully ending ongoing protests. On the other hand, in China, which has followed and analyzed the color revolutions and the Arab springs with great care, there is a concern that the country's integrity and social stability will get out of control.
Turning to violently suppressing the demonstrations, on the other hand, should not be an option that the administration will easily turn to in terms of the consequences it will create. In any case, China is in a process where Xi's real power and social legitimacy will be tested.
The opinions contained in this article are those of the author and may not reflect the editorial policy of Idea Tour.
When Xi came to power in 2021, the Western world expected Deng-like policies, given that he was stationed in the coastal areas that first opened up to capitalism, especially Shanghai. Another factor that feeds the Mao analogy is the West's disappointment in these expectations.
Zhou Enlai (1898-1976): A statesman who was one of the leading leaders of the communist movement, prime minister between 1949-1976, foreign minister between 1949-1958, and played an active role in China's foreign policy after leaving the ministry. A close member of Mao's, Zhou lost his political power near his death.
Modernization in agriculture, industry, defense and science and technology.
Deng Xiaoping's 1992 trip to major economic centers (Shenzhen, Zhuai, Wuchang, Shanghai), including the special economic zones where the first liberal policies were implemented, giving speeches in support of opening up policies. This trip, known as the South Tour, is seen as the stage that confirms the correctness/continuity of the reform and opening-up policies that China has implemented with some hesitation until then.
What is new in HU's "dual circulation" policy, which is the component of "scientific development" policy.
For the full text of the report: https://english.news.cn/20221025/8eb6f5239f984f01a2bc45b5b5db0c51/c.html
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