The world is facing many crises, from the pandemic to the war, from the energy crisis to increasing inflation. The current international system is insufficient. So, how is a new international order emerging? Which countries will be in which event in this order?
Successive global crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine-Russia war, are seriously undermining the current international order that emerged after the Second World War and in which the West was the sole dominant power with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The rise of countries such as China and India, and Europe's attempts to determine its own strategic line in the long run, point to the birth of a new and multipolar world order. Former German Foreign Minister and Deputy Chancellor Joschka Fischer describes her predictions for this new international order in her article for the Project Syndicate website.
We share some highlights of the article:
We are witnessing an unprecedented simultaneous occurrence of major and minor crises.
From the COVID-19 pandemic, rising energy prices, the return of inflation in developed and emerging economies, disrupted supply chains, Russia's illegal war in Ukraine, and climate change, many of these crises are not just a weakening of the current order, but the emergence of a new world order. signs of it.
Five-Pole New Global Order
As the remnants of the bipolar order of the twentieth century are finally dissolving, a new global five-pole order comes to the fore.
The US and China, the two military, technological and economic superpowers of this century, will remain the most important players, but Europe, Japan and India will have a serious impact on much of the world.
There is a big question mark about Russia, because its future position, capabilities and strategic stance will depend on the outcome of its reckless war of aggression.
It is already certain that Russia will suffer a military defeat in Ukraine, the question here is not "whether" but "when". However, it is too early to predict the possible consequences of this defeat. Will the Putin regime survive, or will Russia's defeat herald a new phase of internal collapse and disintegration?
Until the answer to this question becomes clear, we do not yet know whether Russia will try to maintain its claim to dominance over much of Eastern Europe and Eurasia.
What will be Russia's place in the new world order?
If the Kremlin has to abandon this claim, it will probably no longer be a world power. However, even a battered and humiliated Russia will likely continue to be a major source of instability in the new world order, and especially on the European continent, rather than going into geopolitical hibernation.
But it is clear that Russia's huge nuclear arsenal is no longer sufficient to secure its geopolitical position in the twenty-first century. Russia's economy is definitely weakening as the rest of the world begins to abandon fossil fuels, the backbone of the Russian economy, over time.
What is the biggest difference between China and Russia?
China's wealth and power will grow, while Russia poses new risks from its weakness and collapse. Thanks to the great globalization wave that started in the early 2000s, China managed to lift itself out of poverty and reach high-income status.
With the 2008 financial crisis partially discrediting the West, China was able to expand its global leadership role and present itself as a global superpower alongside the United States.
But unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China did not make the mistake of focusing solely on its military strength. Rather, China's global rise reflects its embrace of integration into the US and Western-dominated world markets, serving as the world's "manufacturing hub" while investing heavily to compete with the West in the technological and scientific fields.
The Chinese certainly did not hold back on military investments, but they did not let defense and security spending get in the way of everything else. The decisive difference between China and Russia today is that, unlike Putin, Chinese leaders have been keeping pace with the twenty-first century for quite some time.
The G20 summit held in Bali revealed this fundamental difference of perspective and purpose. While Russia found itself diplomatically marginalized, China was at the center of all the discussions and shaping the final declaration.
Although they did not adopt the West's line regarding the Ukraine crisis, big countries such as China and India, on this occasion, kept a clear distance from the Kremlin and condemned Russia's war policy and nuclear threats.
Will international relations be reshaped?
If face-to-face talks between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping help reduce Sino-American tensions, the Bali summit will open the door to reshaping international relations in the twenty-first century.
The outcome of the US midterm elections offers yet another reason to be hopeful that the "red tide" expected of Republicans did not materialize. The Republican Party failed to win a majority in the Senate and barely won a majority in the House of Representatives. Former President Donald Trump has once again left his party behind, as he did in 2018 and 2020. United States peoples do not want a return to his "America First" isolationist policies.
The US midterm elections and the G20 Summit in Bali offer hope in a troubled time. But we have to go a long way in global cooperation. Ultimately, the two biggest crises, Russia's war in Ukraine and climate change, can only be overcome if the world's most important states find a way to work together.
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